Commentary

ON RISK AND VOLATILITY With the recent volatility in the global equity markets, the subject of “risk” has re-emerged as a leading conversation topic among the media talking heads. Mr. Market1 , a metaphoric figure used to represent the collective opinions of global investors, is a fickle fellow. His mood […]

THE MARKET LOW: TWO YEARS LATER April 13, 2009 – Dow 8,057: “Throughout January and February, when the outlook seemed the darkest, investors were able to ‘stay the course’, while fear seized those with less experience and resolve. The Dow hit an intraday low of 6,470 on March 6th and […]

CAGNY 2011 Last week, we attended the 2011 Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) conference in Boca Raton, Florida. CAGNY is the first stop on our annual conference tour and, as expected, gave us a great briefing on the mindset of the consumer. We heard from 28 CEO’s and […]

ADDRESSING THE DOUBLE DIP QUESTION The developments in the economy over the past few months have struck a noticeably different tone among many economists, investors, and commentators. The question of whether a “double dip” recession has begun is the topic of water cooler conversations across America. The term “unusually uncertain”, […]

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD? Self-confidence can be fickle and capricious. The U.S. had it so good in the 1990s – economic growth, market appreciation, and budget surpluses – and then so bad in the 2000s – wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, flat markets, budget deficits, a financial/credit collapse, and […]

CERTAINTY IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD The recovery in the global equity markets is approaching its twelfth month. It was, after all, March 9, 2009 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a low of 6,547. The magnitude of the unexpected credit crisis caused heavy selling of equities globally. To date […]

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES The end of the third quarter marked the first anniversary of the cataclysmic failure of Lehman Brothers and the collapse of the credit markets. There are a number of significant dates in everyone’s life that warrant reflection, renewal, and often resolution. New Years, Anniversaries, […]

WHAT HAS CHANGED? It is Spring. The grass is showing green, trees are showing leaves, new growth is upon us, and most of us are feeling better. Following the September 15, 2008 Lehman Brothers failure, the economy and the securities markets experienced six very negative months. In fact, the first […]

A LOOK AT THE CONSUMER Last week, we attended the 2009 CAGNY Conference. CAGNY, the Consumer Analysts Group of New York, is the only independent investment conference of its kind and features presentations from twentyeight Chief Executive Officers and/or Chief Financial Officers from companies in the food, beverage and consumer […]

SANTAYANA AND 2009 It is interesting how the ending of one year and the beginning of a new one affects our thinking. We give ourselves permission to turn the page and start afresh; 2009 is certain to be one of those welcomed new starts. Paraphrasing one of my favorite quotes […]